lookingforclues’ Activity

Yesterday

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lookingforclues replied to the Beerpig's Snug board. 18:34

Re: Andy Murray

He's a young chap when the indoctrination of childhood still weighs heavy on your thinking.

I remember being a radical socialist at that age before I new anything about economics.

We were all young once!

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lookingforclues replied to the Bert's Investor Sanctuary board. 07:46

Re: The social utility of finance

Kinda a big mismatch there between consensus expediency and fundamentals?

Not so much if you think Globally.

The real issue with unbridled capitalism is the tragedy of the commons, something that will most likely get worse [more]

Thu Sep 18

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lookingforclues replied to the Scottish Independence Referendum board. 16:37

Re: Andy Murray Backs Yes

“Huge day for Scotland today! No campaign negativity last few days totally swayed my view on it. Excited to see the outcome. Lets do this!”

Is a bit ambiguous.

'Negativity by the 'No' campaign' or 'no campaign [more]

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lookingforclues replied to the Investment Strategies board. 11:59

Re: Cap vs Equal weighting

And yes, if equal-weighting floats your boat, then go ahead but don't fool yourself that it's applicable generally.

But that's the whole point. The fact that equal weighting is not applied generally is what makes it so [more]

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lookingforclues replied to the Investment Strategies board. 10:08

Re: Cap vs Equal weighting

GS

Equal weighting as a general principle has no merit whatsoever, quite apart from being impossible in practice.

Firstly, to be clear, I'm talking about equity investments and equal weighting stocks. I do not advocate equal [more]

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lookingforclues replied to the Beerpig's Snug board. 06:49

Re: Betfair says no

I know that there are some expert betters on TMF, so has anyone any bright ideas for bets that might produce a better return in the event of a No vote?

I bought a couple of out-of-the money Sept call options on the FTSE 100 a few days [more]

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lookingforclues replied to the Investment Strategies board. 06:42

Re: Cap vs Equal weighting

GeoffF100

The market portfolio is the only one that can be optimal for everyone.

Only if everyone if forced to hold an identical portfolio. However, if the majority of managed funds and trackers are cap weighting then that [more]

Wed Sep 17

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lookingforclues replied to the Investment Strategies board. 17:19

Re: Cap vs Equal weighting

Experience has shown that, on average over large numbers of companies and over long periods of time, big companies tend to be less risky than small companies but also have lower returns.

Easily resolved by diversifying across many [more]

Sat Sep 13

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lookingforclues replied to the Investment Strategies board. 18:03

Re: Cap vs Equal weighting

I have already outlined the essence of the proof

No, you've just gone back to quoting CAPM theory, you haven't even attempted to answer my very simple question;

2 companies, A and B. A is 100x the market cap of B but has a [more]

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lookingforclues replied to the Investment Strategies board. 13:06

Re: Cap vs Equal weighting

Because that will maximise your risk adjusted return if the pricing is perfect, or so says the mathematics

There are two parts to risk adjusted return, expected return and risk.

Expected return can be estimated by different [more]

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lookingforclues replied to the Investment Strategies board. 12:18

Re: Cap vs Equal weighting

See http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Capital_asset_pricing_model

This does not say that an individual should follow market cap but rather that assets are priced [more]

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lookingforclues replied to the Investment Strategies board. 11:11

Re: Cap vs Equal weighting

Mkt cap is better seen as a measure of popularity than of money made

Which would make it even less sensible for an individual investor to allocate their money by market cap.

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lookingforclues replied to the Investment Strategies board. 07:36

Re: Cap vs Equal weighting

It is a reasonable supposition that if an equally weighted portfolio could beat a market cap tracker than someone would have tried it by now and dressed it up as active management and shouted their success from the rooftops

If you [more]

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lookingforclues replied to the Investment Strategies board. 07:28

Re: Cap vs Equal weighting

If we assume an efficient market, and that all investors face the same costs and taxes and have the same objectives, CAPM tells us that the optimum investment for all those investors is a market weighted combination of all the investments [more]

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lookingforclues replied to the Investment Strategies board. 06:56

Re: Cap vs Equal weighting

Clearly you haven't understood the logic

Possible, care to explain it?

Fri Sep 12

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lookingforclues replied to the Investment Strategies board. 18:27

Re: Cap vs Equal weighting

The average of all of those figures is 0% as you've centred around the average, standard deviation 12.3%, minimum -37%, maximum +38%. Those two extremes (min and max) have high inverse correlations!

Seriously? You have looked at [more]

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lookingforclues replied to the Investment Strategies board. 11:46

Re: Cap vs Equal weighting

Hiriskpaul

The following paragraph from the study you link caught my eye;

As a simple empirical test, we examine stock portfolios using monthly historical data from the Russell Global Index, which extends from January 1997 to [more]

Thu Sep 11

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lookingforclues replied to the Beerpig's Snug board. 09:25

Re: Scots Independence

The thing is, if it's a Guess vote, then no one is trapped these days are they.

Actually I would say the majority are. Or effectively are. Think jobs, family, relationships, housing and the cost and risk of moving.

The people [more]

Wed Sep 10

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lookingforclues replied to the Gold & Other Precious Metals board. 06:42

Re: Scottish Gold?

I wonder if Salmond will want 10% of the gold reserves in the event of a YES vote, and wether he would get them?

I'm absolutely certain he will. However, I cannot see either the rUK or iScottish govmnts giving it to him.

Tue Sep 9

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lookingforclues replied to the Scottish Independence Referendum board. 07:26

Re: Krugman on Scotland & the pound

what would he know about it Alex Salmond's an economist too and he say's it'll all be fine.

Actually Salmond has made it pretty clear that not being part of a currency union is not fine. First by refusing to even talk about a plan B [more]

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