lookingforclues’ Activity

Thu Apr 16

NL

Boards Post

lookingforclues replied to the Investment Strategies board. 06:53

Re: equities va gilts

However, rebalancing into a declining asset would still be likely to give a better result than putting 100% into that declining asset!

Sure but an allocation into both assets at the outset with no subsequent rebalancing would give the [more]

Wed Apr 15

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lookingforclues replied to the Investment Strategies board. 17:26

Re: equities va gilts

The US market was up 99% over the period and UK up 79%.

In both examples you've given, gilts vs equities and US vs UK equities, the total return from asset classes covered was positive. To appreciate the risk inherent in rebalancing [more]

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lookingforclues replied to the Property - Markets and Trends board. 08:22

Re: Buy-to-let...beat all other investments

As I said 10 properties takes no looking after so why would you outsource it?

Is this like one of those magic tricks where you reveal how it's done at the end?

Seriously, I've never heard anyone ever claim that running btl's [more]

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lookingforclues replied to the Property - Markets and Trends board. 08:17

Re: Buy-to-let...beat all other investments

Lisa

That would be a bad choice for some people e.g. someone approaching retirement who wants low volatility and capital protection.
You've just given a great example of where DIY and no knowledge or advice could work out
[more]

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lookingforclues replied to the Investment Strategies board. 08:04

Re: Tactical Call

I am selling most of my equities (barring a few resource and speciality stocks) in favour of cash, index-linked gilt and absolute return funds.

This all or nothing approach wouldn't work for me. Psychologically, if I'd unloaded the [more]

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lookingforclues replied to the Investment Strategies board. 07:48

Re: equities va gilts

When the calculation is done using this model on the WB portfolio, with a 15% volatility for the S&P 500, zero for the T-bills and zero correlation, the result comes out as a rebalancing gain of 0.1%, a similar contribution to overall [more]

Tue Apr 14

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lookingforclues replied to the Investment Strategies board. 18:11

Re: equities va gilts

Basic random walk models with no mean reversion, e.g. as used in Black-Scholes option pricing, predict positive expected benefits from rebalancing. Volatility capture is expected to be positive if returns from different assets are not perfectly [more]

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lookingforclues replied to the Investment Strategies board. 18:10

Re: equities va gilts

But how long, or rather how large to you allow the biggest gainers to become, before the largest are too concentrated (overweight single asset/sector) and its more appropriate to sell the lot and start all over again (rebalance back to a set of [more]

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lookingforclues replied to the Investment Strategies board. 08:04

Re: equities va gilts

It seems to be accepted almost without real debate that rebalancing stocks is good and anything else is bad. It may be so but.......

I certainly don't think it is so. The link you post suggests to me that the best market strategy is [more]

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lookingforclues replied to the Property - Markets and Trends board. 07:53

Re: Buy-to-let...beat all other investments

If you buy a few of course you can. Different areas, different types of properties, different target markets - eg prof, blue collar workers, students, luxury, family , DSS etc

95% of landlords own fewer than 5 properties

[more]

Mon Apr 13

NL

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lookingforclues replied to the Property - Markets and Trends board. 17:57

Re: Buy-to-let...beat all other investments

Tells me that it is lower risk. Which is why I can explain why banks won't lend money as freely on equities as they do to buy houses.

Banks are in a different position to individuals. They can spread risk across many people and [more]

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lookingforclues replied to the Property - Markets and Trends board. 15:19

Re: Buy-to-let...beat all other investments

Indeed, but banks tend to lend money where there is a profit in it for them. And the invisible hand, would have created a market, if it was as low risk as lending on houses.

Why even bother looking at an indirect measure of risk (what [more]

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lookingforclues replied to the Property - Markets and Trends board. 14:24

Re: Buy-to-let...beat all other investments

If borrowing money to invest in equities, and to buy property are of equal risks, then I wonder why banks don't lend you money to buy equities at very low rates for 25 years.

Risk is not measured by what banks are prepared to do, for [more]

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lookingforclues replied to the Property - Markets and Trends board. 13:29

Re: Buy-to-let...beat all other investments

Stock market has leverage, it is just the company whose shares you own is doing the borrowing, on your behalf

A complete red herring.

If measured over long time periods, stock market returns have been broadly comparable to [more]

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lookingforclues posted to the Beerpig's Snug board. 07:42

windies

Over on the 'sports betting' board I posted that I thought betting against England could be lucrative.

Have just backed that hunch with a tenner on the Windies to win the first test at 11/2.

Value?

lfc

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Boards Post

lookingforclues replied to the Beerpig's Snug board. 07:02

Re: Bear with me

Trying to bring a psychological argument into why this happens is just a deflective tactic as far as I am concerned.

Wow, it's been a long time since trying to gain an understanding of psychology and philosophy has been described as a [more]

Sat Apr 11

NL

Boards Post

lookingforclues replied to the Sports Betting board. 10:47

Re: The essence of sports betting

I don't bet on sports very often but have found betting against England works pretty well. My last success was in the cricket when I backed Bangladesh who were 4/1 despite being in arguably the better position (I don't recall the actual score at the [more]

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lookingforclues replied to the Beerpig's Snug board. 08:19

Re: Bear with me

In order to help others. Is that not obvious?

Do to yourself what small children do and keep asking 'why?'.

So 'why do I want to help others?' would be the next question.

Then 'why?' to the answer.

No [more]

Fri Apr 10

NL

Boards Post

lookingforclues replied to the Beerpig's Snug board. 07:32

Re: Bear with me

Coley

Personally, I put other peoples' needs and desires before mine on a regular basis.

I have a strong desire for more money, please could you contact me off board with a view to addressing this [more]

Sat Apr 4

NL

Boards Post

lookingforclues replied to the Beerpig's Snug board. 15:24

Re: Leader's Debate

Simsqu

My wife has been a teacher for decades. Contrary to popular belief, teachers actually know what they are doing and - here's a surprise - know how to deal with reluctant/disruptive kids

Well no great surprise that [more]

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Big gold star, 5000 posts
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People who have rec'd these posts 1808
Recs to Posts Ratio (last 30 days) 8.50
Threads Started 397
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Most Frequent Board Property - Markets and Trends
Very First Post Re: costs ! (26/08/2007)
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