lookingforclues’ Activity

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lookingforclues replied to the Investment Strategies board. 37 minutes ago

Re: GMO Update

I disagree. Business, be it oil exploration or making widgets, exploits the opportinities it is offered. If oil trades at $30/bbl someone will engineer a way to make money at that level. Whether that produces enough to supply the demand at that [more]

Wed Feb 3

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lookingforclues replied to the Investment Strategies board. 10:48

Re: Poll: EMH

But that's quite a different proposition from attempting to buy apparently 'cheap' stuff that markets might throw up and various TMFers have alighted upon over the years, per the examples. No one's pretending that loads of errors weren't/aren't [more]

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lookingforclues replied to the High Yield - HYP Practical board. 10:42

Re: market direction

The safest assumption IMO is that over the next 2 months the market is about equally likely to go up or down.

What you do know is that the market is about 20% cheaper than it was a few months ago.

On the basis of the above if I had [more]

Tue Feb 2

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lookingforclues replied to the Investment Strategies board. 13:30

Re: Poll: EMH

We know that the tech market boom turned to bust, we may well have felt at the time it was a bubble and acted accordingly. We know now it was a bubble, for some stocks, but at any moment one of the other possible futures may have occurred and in [more]

Mon Feb 1

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lookingforclues replied to the Investment Strategies board. 13:42

Re: Poll: EMH

So still waiting to hear how EMH people believe that trackers "know" the correct price level for the securities they track?

If EMH is correct then the market price is, by definition, the right price.

lfc

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lookingforclues replied to the Investment Strategies board. 13:41

Re: Poll: EMH

Surely the one thing that a theory stating "market pricing is always correct" cannot be is "mostly right".

It can be right for most markets but not all. There are those that believe EMH to be correct for highly [more]

Sun Jan 31

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lookingforclues replied to the Investment Strategies board. 13:53

Re: Poll: EMH

Thanks to all respondents so far.

I was less concerned in this poll about whether EMH is right or wrong but rather what people on here believe. Already it is becoming clear that few (1 out of 45 so far) subscribe to the thesis that EMH is [more]

Sat Jan 30

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lookingforclues polled the Investment Strategies board. 11:42

Poll: EMH

It strikes me that a lot of the beliefs and strategies expressed on a lot of the investment boards on TMF have an implicit assumption that EMH (Efficient Market Hypothesis) is either right or wrong. If it's right then pretty much any research we do, [more]

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lookingforclues replied to the Investment Strategies board. 07:30

Re: Buy the dip

that's (partly) why its so hard (psychologically) to buy in bear markets...

It's only hard if you believe in such things as bear or bull markets, i.e. believe that past price action has any bearing whatsoever on future prices. [more]

Fri Jan 29

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lookingforclues replied to the Oil & Gas - Companies board. 09:41

Re: What to buy?

Hi Bob

With respect to Tourneself, who definitely knows what he's talking about and has made some good calls with oil co's, I think you need to look at oil price expectations as well as the actual oil price when trying to guess what [more]

Wed Jan 27

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lookingforclues replied to the Does Anybody Know? board. 07:20

Re: Catching a cold

Yes, that definitely sounds like a way to get a controlled dose.

No, it's the way to catch a cold!

You get a cold (i.e. feel the symptoms of a cold) because, after exposure to the virus, your body's immune system takes time [more]

Tue Jan 26

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lookingforclues replied to the Investment Strategies board. 11:50

Re: .Confessions of a rentier

1929-33 was a walk in the park...

The 73% fall in 1973-4 was the biggest for the UK stock market during the 20thC.

lfc

Mon Jan 25

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lookingforclues replied to the Tennis board. 09:41

Re: Konta beats Williams

OK, now it's getting interesting......

Sat Jan 23

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lookingforclues replied to the Does Anybody Know? board. 12:29

Re: Lottery odds

IofWP

Yes, you are right, if the numbers are distinct the odds double.

A lot of people do 'lucky dip' with lottery tickets so for them there is a chance of the same number. Although for the lottery this is so small it hardly [more]

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lookingforclues replied to the Does Anybody Know? board. 11:25

Re: Lottery odds

Actually, as often happens when I post in haste, I've got this wrong if the two tickets are purchased for the same draw.

If we consider the case for a 4-sided dice then it's much easier to see why;

If you are given one number then [more]

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lookingforclues replied to the Does Anybody Know? board. 08:46

Re: Lottery odds

The way to calculate this is to consider the odds of not winning rather than the odds of winning.

If the odds of winning a lottery for any single ticket are 42 million to 1 then the odds of not winning with that ticket are 41,999,999 [more]

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lookingforclues replied to the Investment Strategies board. 07:19

Re: Poll: Calling the bottem

GS

Nope. You have misunderstood: I wrote "tends towards" in the earlier post, using "tends" in the calculus sense. I conceded that random walk may occur in the limit i.e. when you stretch uncertainty towards infinity. [more]

Fri Jan 22

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lookingforclues replied to the Investment Strategies board. 18:40

Re: Poll: Calling the bottem

[as cashflows become more uncertain, price tends to random walk]

So we are pretty much in agreement after all as this is in direct contrast to your opening post in this thread claiming that we were half way through a bear market. The [more]

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lookingforclues replied to the Investment Strategies board. 09:31

Re: Poll: Calling the bottem

Your argument seems to be that equities are fundamentally different to bonds. This is wrong. Sorry. It's as simple as that. You're welcome to try to justify your claim but personally I think the conversation is over: we have a different and rather [more]

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lookingforclues replied to the Investment Strategies board. 07:24

Re: Poll: Calling the bottem

GS

If gilts are predictable, but equities approximate to a random walk, then how come you didn't predict that gilts would go up, but you know without a doubt that equities always rise "in the long term"?

Firstly, [more]

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