F958B

Boards Post

F958B replied to the Investment Strategies board. 18:01

Re: Quantity or Quality

FGP has just become 30% cheaper, and the only way is up :D

Quite often, a share which plummets as a result of a negative surprise, often sees a brief bounce as the knife-catchers pile in, then a bout of analyst downgrades and [more]

Boards Post

F958B replied to the Investment Strategies board. 13:09

Re: Tactics

Buy meaningful quantities of shares in great companies for a sensible price and plan to hold them for the long-term unless/until another great company (or other asset class) comes along at even better value-for-money.

Don't pay high [more]

Boards Post

F958B replied to the High Yield - Share Strategies board. 15:39

Re: Mid-May 2013 Scoring and Core Holdings

The thing is there are still quite a few decent shares out there now, as you point out. So I don't think we are at a general crazy buying of the market yet.

Even at major market peaks, such as 2000 or 2007, there were a handful of [more]

Boards Post

F958B replied to the High Yield - Share Strategies board. 13:39

Re: Mid-May 2013 Scoring and Core Holdings

If you want to make those big macro calls on the market, why not just short sell the FTSE? Also why keep your holdings if you think the market will tank 40%?

I prefer (but never say never) not to short markets as it's against the [more]

Boards Post

F958B replied to the High Yield - Share Strategies board. 10:56

Re: Mid-May 2013 Scoring and Core Holdings

"....but not cheap enough for me...."

There isn't much that's cheap enough for me, either - at least; not cheap enough given the fundamentals.

I stay quiet these days because I have very little in the way of kind [more]

Boards Post

F958B replied to the High Yield - Share Strategies board. 08:54

Re: Mid-May 2013 Scoring and Core Holdings

Just noticed an error: SSE should be listed as "fairly valued" with a score of 11.

Boards Post

F958B posted to the High Yield - Share Strategies board. 20:36

Mid-May 2013 Scoring and Core Holdings

My aims:
-> An above-market-average level of income.
-> A resilient income stream from companies perceived to be among the most dependable in difficult times.
-> A modestly rising income stream - slightly exceeding inflation [more]

Boards Post

F958B posted to the High Yield - Share Strategies board. 10:49

End-April 2013 Scoring and Core Holdings

My aims:
-> An above-market-average level of income.
-> A resilient income stream from companies perceived to be among the most dependable in difficult times.
-> A modestly rising income stream - slightly exceeding inflation [more]

Boards Post

F958B replied to the Investment Strategies board. 18:07

Re: Lost the Plot

Folks, don't worry about jumbling my username.

And also don't think that I'm seeking sympathy or "don't go" comments - I'm not. If I'm not getting high accuracy in my market assessment then I need to step back, re-evaluate take a [more]

Boards Post

F958B replied to the High Yield - Share Strategies board. 15:32

Re: Mid-April 2013 Scoring and Core Holdings

itsallaguess

Yes, I consider inflation.
Stockmarkets peaked around 25x P/E and 2-3% yields in the late-1960's and despite eye-watering inflation they were no higher in nominal terms sixteen years later, although yields were three times [more]

Boards Post

F958B replied to the High Yield - Share Strategies board. 14:37

Re: Mid-April 2013 Scoring and Core Holdings

azop

A market which is considerably overvalued (e.g. 1999) needs to fall by 50% to reach fair value (e.g. 2003).
But to get the full mean reversion, markets need to subsequently fall another 50% to become cheap. In "the old [more]

Boards Post

F958B replied to the Investment Strategies board. 12:29

Re: Lost the Plot

I think you are being unnecesarily melodramatic here

In my previous job as a scientist, I was required to make fast, accurate decisions on sick hospital patients - sometimes after being dragged out of bed in the small [more]

Boards Post

F958B replied to the Investment Strategies board. 12:11

Re: Lost the Plot

If we all stopped posting until our views ultimately proved to be correct then these boards would be very quiet indeed!

Agreed.
But if I have nothing nice to say about an asset class, it just causes bad feeling. [more]

Boards Post

F958B replied to the Investment Strategies board. 11:59

Re: Lost the Plot

Aleister

I didn't intend to continue posting, but as you asked, and for what it's worth, I said on another topic:

The proposed new look for my portfolio at the end of 2013 (assuming stockmarkets remain kind and allow me to cash-out) [more]

Boards Post

F958B replied to the High Yield - Share Strategies board. 11:45

Re: Mid-April 2013 Scoring and Core Holdings

AZOP

"....Given your prediction of a major market correction within a year why aren’t all shares currently overvalued in your analysis?...."

The chart in my post (Date: 14/04/2013 12:19) shows that stockmarkets [more]

Boards Post

F958B posted to the Investment Strategies board. 11:07

Lost the Plot

I expected stockmarkets to pull back significantly.
I expected gold to continue its uptrend.

I appear to have lost the plot - and I can sense my postings sounding like a crazy old man - but I am unable to see where I went wrong with my [more]

Boards Post

F958B replied to the High Yield - Share Strategies board. 10:41

Re: Mid-April 2013 Scoring and Core Holdings

timeandpatience
"...a rather off-putting gearing ratio of 146%..."

My assessment of interest cover (my preferred measure of debt affordability) indicated that G4S have sufficient strength and relatively stable [more]

Boards Post

F958B replied to the High Yield - Share Strategies board. 16:19

Re: Mid-April 2013 Scoring and Core Holdings

"...by exiting equities in favour of BTL, you're just swapping one government intervention (QE) for another (Help to buy etc)...."

It could also be considered diversification away from total dependence on equities to [more]

Boards Post

F958B replied to the High Yield - Share Strategies board. 13:32

Re: Mid-April 2013 Scoring and Core Holdings

S&P500 with VIX in the background, showing strong negative correlation:
[more]

Boards Post

F958B replied to the High Yield - Share Strategies board. 13:22

Re: Mid-April 2013 Scoring and Core Holdings

On the other hand, the bullish percent index of the S&P500 is high:
[more]